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☆ Former St. Louis Fed Pres. Bullard: March jobs report shows 'the economy is running pretty hot'
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFormer St. Louis Fed Pres. Bullard: March jobs report shows 'the economy is running pretty hot'James Bullard, Purdue University's Business School Dean and former St. Louis Fed President, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the March jobs report, the impact on the Fed's interest rate path, state of the economy, and more.

Persons: Louis Fed Pres, Bullard, James Bullard, Purdue University's Business School Dean, Louis Organizations: Former, Purdue University's Business School, Louis Fed

☆ Treasury yields pull back as big economic data releases come into view
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-24 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was down by around 3.7 basis points at 4.1050% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond slipped 3.7 basis points to 4.3418%. U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Wednesday morning as investors brace themselves for two key pieces of economic data in the second half of the week. Two significant pieces of economic data are on the slate this week: a preliminary fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth figure is due on Thursday, followed by the Commerce Department's closely watched personal consumption expenditures price index for December on Friday. Both data points will inform the Federal Reserve as it maps out when and by how much to begin cutting interest rates, which will be a key factor in determining the path of markets and the economy this year. Auctions will be held for $60 billion of 17-week Treasury bills, $61 billion of 5-year notes and $28 billion of 2-year FRNs (floating-rate notes).

Persons: Jim Reid, Bullard, Reid, that's Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Commerce, Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank's, Global, Bank of Canada, European Central Bank, St Louis Fed, PMI

Wells Fargo now says it pegs the odds of a recession at 40% in 2024. The Blue Chip Economic survey released last week echoed the bonhomie. More than two-thirds, 69%, of small business and 67% of midsize business leaders expressed optimism about their company’s performance. This week, members of Congress will learn the details and begin signaling whether the plan has the support of both houses. Meanwhile, in Davos, Switzerland, where many of the world’s leaders, business executives and others have gathered for the World Economic Forum’s 54th meeting, Chinese Premier Li Qiang delivered a bullish speech on China’s economic prospects.

Persons: –, Wells, “, ”, Wells Fargo, Sam Bullard, ” Bullard, JPMorgan Chase, Li Qiang Organizations: Federal Reserve, BCA Research, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s, University of Michigan, Wells, Investment Banking, JPMorgan, Capitol Locations: U.S, Davos, Switzerland

☆ Opinion | Is the Fed Falling Prey to Groupthink?
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-15 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

If you’re looking to argue that the Fed suffers from too much unanimity, the inflationary surge of 2022 looks like evidence. In speeches, various members of the committee had been expressing concerns about inflation, but they weren’t voting that way. She worked at the Fed for 25 years in stints between 1984 and 2022, including one writing up the minutes of Federal Open Market Committee meetings. Meade said one reason dissents are few is that “the meetings aren’t about today, they’re about tomorrow.” Committee meetings occur eight times a year. If a voter feels uncomfortable with the (unanimous) rate decision, that person will try to rally support for a different path at future meetings.

Persons: James Bullard, Louis, Ellen Meade, “, ” Meade, Levin, Meade Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of St, Duke University, Fed, Open

☆ St. Louis Fed names former Tudor executive Alberto Musalem as new president
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-04 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Economist Alberto Musalem was named the next president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis on Thursday. The St. Louis Fed representative is an alternate member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee and will vote in 2025. St. Louis Fed First Vice President Kathy O'Neill has been holding the position in the interim. "Alberto will be an outstanding president and CEO of the St. Louis Fed," said St. Louis Fed director Carolyn Chism Hardy, president and CEO of Chism Hardy Investments and deputy chair of the bank's search committee. "I am deeply honored to serve as the next president of the St. Louis Fed and grateful for the opportunity to promote a strong, resilient and inclusive economy," Musalem said.

Persons: Alberto Musalem, Louis, Musalem, James Bullard, Kathy O'Neill, Alberto, Louis Fed, Carolyn Chism Hardy, Chism, Hardy, Paul Tudor Jones Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of St, Purdue University, Louis Fed, Market, Investments, Evince Asset Management, New York Fed, Tudor Investment Corp, Eighth, CNBC PRO Locations: St

Last Friday provided a split-screen view of the markets and the Federal Reserve. “Indeed, we look for the return of striking workers to add nearly 45K jobs to November’s payrolls. Wednesday brings the first measure of the November job market when private payroll firm ADP releases its monthly survey of employers. October came in at 150,000, a drop from the recent trend of around 200,000 jobs added per month. Consequently, we expect the post-meeting statement will keep the door open to the possibility of additional tightening this cycle.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, ” William Blair, Richard de Chazal, that’s, de Chazal, –, payrolls, “, Sam Bullard, November’s, Bullard, Wells Fargo Organizations: Federal Reserve, Spelman College, “, Futures, United Auto Workers, UAW, Hollywood, Wells, Labor

☆ Fed hawks, doves, and centrists: How US central bankers' views are changing
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Now, as Fed policymakers note improvement on inflation and some cooling in the labor market, the risks are seen as more balanced and the choices more nuanced. The following chart offers a look at how officials currently stack up on their outlooks for Fed policy and how to balance their goals of stable prices and full employment. Note: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.50%, was in July. Below is a Reuters count of policymakers in each category, heading into recent Fed meetings.

Persons: Jeff Schmid, Adriana Kugler, Louis Fed, James Bullard, Louis, Kathleen O'Neill Paese, Ann Saphir, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Federal Open Market, New York Fed, Kansas City Fed's, Fed's, Governors, Interim, Louis Fed, Thomson Locations: Kansas, St

☆ Former St. Louis Fed president says the FOMC still has 'a ways to go' on inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFormer St. Louis Fed president says the FOMC still has 'a ways to go' on inflationJames Bullard, former president of the St. Louis Fed, discusses the outlook for interest rates and the U.S. economy.

Persons: Louis Fed, James Bullard Organizations: Former Locations: U.S

The week starts off with a bevy of unpleasant surprises for the markets and the economy but with maybe a hope of good news on the inflation front. “The decline in oil prices will feature prominently in explaining October's CPI and PPI reports. Core CPI likely slowed in October as well, with lower prices of new and used cars, lower airfares, and lower shelter costs all leaning the same way. PPI inflation likely moderated in October, too, with diesel prices following crude oil prices lower, albeit not by as much as gasoline. Powell’s comments were not anything new, but the timing seemed to suggest he was dampening down enthusiasm in the markets.

Persons: Moody’s, Mike Johnson, ”, Bob Doll, Republican Sen, Tim Scott of, David Cameron, Rishi Sunak, Stocks, Bill Adams, Waran Bhahirethan, ” Adams, Jerome Powell spooked, ” Powell, Oliver Rust, Sam Bullard, ” Bullard Organizations: U.S, AAA, Louisiana Republican, GOP, Senate, Crossmark Global Investments, Republican, Tim Scott of South Carolina, Conservative, Analysts, Comerica Bank, PPI, CPI, Federal Reserve, International Monetary Fund, Central Bank, “, Wells Locations: U.S, Louisiana, Tim Scott of South, London, Iraq, Syria, Gaza City, September’s, Israel, Washington

☆ US job growth probably slowed in October due to UAW strike
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The anticipated moderation in employment growth last month would also be pay back after September's enormous gains, the largest in eight months. The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday is expected to show labor market conditions steadily easing, with annual wage growth the smallest in nearly 2-1/2 years and significant growth in the supply of workers. Manufacturing payrolls are forecast falling 10,000 after advancing 17,000 in September. Last week, the BLS reported at least 30,000 UAW members were on strike during the period it surveyed businesses for October's employment report. Wages gains would still be above the 3.5% that economists say is consistent with the Fed's 2% target.

Persons: Brian Snyder, Detroit's, Sam Bullard, payrolls, Veronica Clark, we've, Sung Won Sohn, we're, Brian Bethune, that's, Lucia Mutikani, David Gregorio Our Organizations: Taylor Party, Equipment Rentals, REUTERS, UAW, United Auto Workers, Labor, Federal Reserve, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Manufacturing, BLS, Citigroup, UPS, Finance, Loyola Marymount University, Boston College, Thomson Locations: Somerville , Massachusetts, U.S, WASHINGTON, Wells, Charlotte , North Carolina, New York, Los Angeles

Do policymakers look back to last week’s report that the nation’s economy grew at a 4.9% rate in September, beating expectations? Or this week’s report on job growth for October due out on Friday after the Fed meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday? On Wednesday, the jobs data onslaught begins with private payroll firm ADP reporting its monthly employment survey for October. Political Cartoons on the Economy View All 602 ImagesWednesday also has the Fed announcing its decision on interest rates. These include adjustments to the Fed’s new regime of higher interest rates for a longer period and the government’s fiscal situation that requires a greater level of debt issuance.

Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Sam Bullard, Wells, ” Bullard, ” Chris Diaz, ”, Louisiana Republican Mike Johnson, Johnson Organizations: Conference Board, Fed, Treasury, Federal, Brown Advisory, Labor Department, McDonalds, Apple, Dow Industrial, Louisiana Republican Locations: Louisiana

That is more than double the 2.1% recorded in the second quarter and a testament to the strength of consumers. But he warned that stronger than expected economic data, particularly as regards the labor market, could leave the door open to even more pressure to raise rates or keep them higher for longer. "Additional evidence of persistently above-trend growth, or that tightness in the labor market is no longer easing, could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy." Complicating matters is that the post-pandemic economy has not gone according to script where higher interest rates almost always blunt economic activity and cause a marked slowdown in the labor market. “The labor market is still adjusting, if it ever does, there’s a question whether retail will ever recover completely,” he says.

Persons: ” Sam Bullard, Wells, Jerome Powell, Powell, ”, George Calhoun, Calhoun, Bill Adams, –, speakership Organizations: Federal, Economic, of New, Stevens Institute of Technology, University of, Comerica, “ Locations: U.S, of New York, Washington, Israel

With two wars, a rising price of oil and a shaky bond market, there is plenty of worry for the markets and economists this week, including a slew of corporate earnings reports and data on the state of the housing market and retail spending. Meanwhile, Russia has been pressing its invasion of Ukraine that is now a year and a half old. Last week ended with a surprise increase in consumer’s expectations of inflation in the University of Michigan’s sentiment survey. Where new home construction a few months ago was holding up the housing market, now it has slumped amid mortgage rates that have brushed 8%. The firm published its monthly economic outlook last week and did not include any more Fed rate hikes in the current cycle.

Persons: “, Jerome Powell, Powell, ” Sam Bullard Organizations: Hamas, University of, “, BCA Research, ”, National Association of Home Builders, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, National Association of Realtors, Economic, of New, Wells Locations: East, Ukraine, Gaza, Israel, Palestinian, U.S, Iran, Lebanon, Russia, of New York

Consumers fell prey to inflation that remains high, especially for life’s necessities like food and gasoline, according to the latest monthly survey from the University of Michigan. The consumer sentiment survey fell by 7% overall to 63 from 68.1 in September, while the current conditions reading dropped to 66.7 from 71.4 and the future expectations was at 60.7, down from 66 a month ago. Notably, expectations for the annual rate of inflation a year from now rose to 3.8% from 3.2% in September. “Assessments of personal finances declined about 15%, primarily on a substantial increase in concerns over inflation, and one-year expected business conditions plunged about 19%,” said Joanne Hsu, survey director. “Owners remain pessimistic about future business conditions, which has contributed to the low optimism they have regarding the economy,” said Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB chief economist.

Persons: ”, Joanne Hsu, Sam Bullard, Joe Brusuelas, Tuan Nguyen, NFIB, Bill Dunkelberg, JP Morgan Chase, Jamie Dimon Organizations: University of Michigan, Monetary Fund, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Wells Locations: U.S, Washington

☆ St. Louis Fed Pres. Bullard: Markets hate uncertainties
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSt. Louis Fed Pres. Bullard: Markets hate uncertaintiesJim Bullard, former St. Louis Fed president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss how Bullard thinks about the macroeconomy relative to the moves in treasuries, Friday's jobs report, and if recent geopolitical events will have any impact to the United States' rate trajectory.

Persons: Louis Fed Pres, Jim Bullard, Louis, Bullard Organizations: St, Louis Fed Locations: St, treasuries, United States

☆ Comedy Wildlife Photo Award 2023 finalists revealed
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Maureen O'Hare | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Fat Bear Week is underway, with public voting starting Wednesday after the event was nearly a casualty of a US government shutdown, and now the UK-based Comedy Wildlife Photo Awards has revealed its 2023 shortlist. Should the crown go to the spherical seal galumphing at speed along the English coast? The awards, founded in 2015 by professional photographers Paul Joynson-Hicks and Tom Sullam, also promote wildlife conservation. Adrian Ślązok/Courtesy Comedy Wildlife Photography AwardsThe expert judges include UK celebrities such as TV presenter Kate Humble and comedian Hugh Dennis, as well as renowned wildlife photographers Daisy Gilardini and Will Bullard-Lucas. The first Comedy Wildlife Guided African Safari will launch in Tanzania in October 2024, guided by the awards’ co-founders Hicks and Sullam and wildlife expert Humble.

Persons: CNN — It’s, There’s, joey, ”, Paul Joynson, Hicks, Tom Sullam, Adrian Ślązok, Kate Humble, Hugh Dennis, Daisy Gilardini, Will Bullard, Lucas, Mara Organizations: CNN, Whitley Fund for Nature Locations: Tanzania, Sullam

That was close, but in the end Congress found a way to avert a government shutdown. “That said, we still look for the gradual deceleration in labor market conditions to continue in the coming months,” Bullard added. Collectively, the three reports will show whether the labor market is slowing – and by just how much. The week will also reveal whether the markets have settled down following the aversion of a government shutdown and concern over rising interest rates in the wake of the Fed’s pause. “The continuation of the disinflation process suggests that the Fed may not need to hike interest rates again this cycle.”

Persons: ” Sam Bullard, “, ” Bullard, Jerome Powell – Organizations: Federal Reserve, Wells, Labor Department, Stock, BCA Research Locations: August’s, payrolls, Washington

☆ Fed doves, Fed hawks: US central bankers in their own words
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The following chart offers a stab at how officials stack up on their outlook for Fed policy and how to balance their goals of stable prices and full employment. Note: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.5%, was in July. Neither Jeff Schmid, Kansas City Fed's president since August and a voter in 2025, nor Adriana Kugler, a permanent voter who was confirmed to the Fed Board in September, have yet made any substantive policy remarks. The St. Louis Fed has begun a search to succeed president, James Bullard, who took a job in academia; the new chief will be a 2025 voter.

Persons: Jeff Schmid, Adriana Kugler, Louis Fed, James Bullard, Ann Saphir, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal, Federal Open Market, New York Fed, Jeff Schmid , Kansas City Fed's, Fed, Thomson Locations: Jeff Schmid , Kansas, St

CNN —Florida authorities have identified the woman found dead after an alligator was seen with a body in its mouth. The Pinellas County Sheriff’s Office on Saturday identified the victim as Sabrina Peckham, 41. A witness, JaMarcus Bullard, told CNN affiliate Spectrum News 13 he earlier saw an alligator with a body its mouth. Officials humanely killed In the the 13-foot, 8.5-inch male, according to the sheriff’s office and Florida Wildlife Conservation Commission. Alligators have been spotted in the area before, but resident Jennifer Dean told Spectrum News 13 that she had never seen one this large.

Persons: Sabrina Peckham, JaMarcus Bullard, ” Bullard, Jennifer Dean, ” Dean Organizations: CNN, Pinellas County Sheriff’s, Florida Wildlife Conservation Locations: Florida, Largo, Tampa, Pinellas County

Usually when a meeting of the Federal Reserve is on the week’s calendar, economists and market strategists focus on the decision to come. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has all but said policymakers would be on hold for this meeting as they digest recent economic data and consider the effects that 11 interest rate hikes have had on the economy. But the Fed will issue a new set of economic forecasts and projections about where interest rates will be over the remaining months of 2023 and in 2024, along with the unemployment rate. However, the LEI has been flashing a recession signal now for many months. “While the LEI continues to signal recession, incoming data show a resilient economy,” said Sam Bullard, managing director and senior economist at Wells Fargo’s corporate and investment unit.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, ” Steve Wyett, Wyett, LEI, ”, Sam Bullard, ” Bullard Organizations: Federal, BOK Financial, Wells, Congress Locations: U.S

☆ Fed losses breach $100 billion as interest costs rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve losses breached the $100 billion mark, central bank data released on Thursday showed, and they're likely to go a lot higher before the red ink stops. While there's considerable uncertainty around how it will all play out, some observers believe Fed losses, which began a year ago, could eventually as much as double before abating. William English, a former top central bank staffer now at Yale University, said he sees a "peak" loss of around $200 billion by 2025. Meanwhile, Derek Tang of forecasting firm LH Meyer said the loss is likely to be between $150 billion and $200 billion by next year. In 2022, the Fed handed back $76 billion, after returning $109 billion in 2021.

Persons: William English, Derek Tang, Meyer, James Bullard, Louis Fed, that's, What's, John Williams, Michael S, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Yale University, Fed, Treasury, . Bank, Securities, New York Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Higher gasoline prices seen boosting US inflation in August
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"It's going to be a mixed picture, with headline inflation picking due to higher gasoline prices and core inflation remaining contained," said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina. "The Fed would be encouraged by the continued moderation trend in core inflation, but it's still too high." While that would mark the second straight month of a pick up in annual inflation, year-on-year consumer prices have come down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. In the 12 months through August, the core CPI is forecast to have increased by 4.3%. "Under our new forecast for CPI health insurance, we continue to expect core CPI and especially core services ex.

Persons: Sam Bullard, it's, Ronnie Walker, Goldman Sachs, James Knightley, Lucia Mutikani, Timothy Gardner Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, U.S . Energy Information Administration, CPI, Financial, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, United Auto Workers, General Motors, Ford Motor, ING, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, Wells, Charlotte , North Carolina, U.S, I'm, New York

For months now, inflation has been steadily trending down to a 3% level after hitting 9% last summer. That will likely bring the annual rate to 3.6%. The Fed actually pays attention to a less well-known inflation metric and tends to focus on core inflation minus housing and those numbers are improving. We look for the monthly pace of core inflation to rebound to 0.2%-0.3% in Q4 and keep the annual rate closer to 4% than 3% through year end. The annual rate of headline CPI is also likely to remain stuck just above 3% through the end of 2023.

Persons: ”, Sam Bullard, Wells, ” Bullard, Janet Yellen Organizations: CPI, White, Fed, PPI Locations: India, U.S

☆ European markets open higher after seven-day losing streak
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( Hannah Ward-Glenton | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

The likelihood that inflation numbers are going to remain stubbornly high for a while could mean more interest rate increases, former St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said Thursday. In a CNBC interview, the the current dean of the Mitchell E. Daniels Jr. School of Business at Purdue University raised the prospect of more policy tightening as core inflation is stuck around 4%. "That's raising the risk that the Fed will have to follow through on its promise rate increase sometime in the next couple of meetings, and there's some risk that they'd have to go a little bit higher even from there," Bullard told CNBC's Steve Liesman. Inflation numbers "have got to come down into the 3% range, and eventually the 2% range, and if that is not happening and they hang up too high, the Fed may have to do more," he said.

Persons: James Bullard, Mitchell, Daniels, Bullard, CNBC's Steve Liesman, — Jeff Cox Organizations: Louis Federal Reserve, CNBC, School of Business, Purdue University Locations: St

☆ September's SEP will have to be adjusted on GDP as the economy persists, says former Fed president
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSeptember's SEP will have to be adjusted on GDP as the economy persists, says former Fed presidentFormer St. Louis Fed chief James Bullard joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the issue of the Federal Reserve's forecast for September, whether the outlook for the federal funds rate needs to go up to account for economic activity and more.

Persons: Louis, James Bullard Organizations: St, Louis Fed

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